Are there any specific leading indicators you look to that have had a high correlation with DBRS organic growth in a given quarter?

May 12, 2023

On an ongoing basis we review deal pipelines, interest rates, and spreads. Starting in mid-2022, volatility in financial markets, especially credit spreads, resulted in a sharp slowdown in credit issuance. DBRS Morningstar has significant exposure to structured finance ratings, and, in particular commercial mortgage-backed and residential-mortgage-backed securities. Weak issuance in those sectors was the primary driver of the organic decline in revenue for DBRS Morningstar in the second half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.

Over the longer term, we expect growth in middle-market and private corporate issuance in the U.S. and Europe to contribute to organic revenue growth. In 2022, we started to see the benefit of investments we’re making in these markets with the issuance of more than 110 new ratings in middle-market corporates during the year.

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